$AMAT · 海外大V持仓追踪

$AMAT 现在是什么情况？

最近有人说了 $AMAT 什么？

下面是最近 8 条提及 $AMAT 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2026-08-16看空原文
  Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.
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• 2026-07-02中性
  @DogUrineCapital 看着挺恶心的：$MRVL 跌 -11%、$AMAT 跌 -11%、$NBIS 跌 -18% 往好处看：$AAOI 这类高beta小盘股提前跌过了， 所以反而抗跌一些
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• 2026-06-07中性原文
  Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 https://t.co/zI7nD2YQpa
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• 2026-05-14看多原文
  Why is our president stock trading like a FinX influencer... Going long on semi supply chains like $JBL to $AMAT? Looks more like a self-made ETF rather than picking individual longs tbh. Not surprised if he picks up $CRBS too lol. Here were the top 100 long positions if you were curious.
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• 2026-05-07中性原文
  @StockStormX $AMAT is a $340B company, you're not getting much direct exposure to it.
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• 2026-05-01中性原文
  As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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• 2026-04-30看多原文
  I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research).
 For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.
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• 2026-04-26看空
  近期新闻+起飞瓶颈TLDR： 1. CPU瓶颈——$INTC CEO说AI推理把CPU配比从1:8推到了1:1。 CPU起飞（$AMD、英特尔、$ARM）→ $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等跟着起飞。 2. PGME/PGMEA短缺。杜邦、信纮、达兴、三福、$DOW 等起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈+涨价（雅特力），AI产能挤压下酝酿提价。 MCU公司可能起飞？ 4. 总统本周启动《国防生产法》，包括： ——变压器 ——输电部件 ——先进导体 ——电力电子 ——变电站 ——高压断路器 ——保护继电器、电容器组 ——电工钢 定性为「严重短缺」。$AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类起飞。 5. $GOOGL 上量新TPU服务器，把AI芯片分成训练和推理两条线。 台湾开心。联发科等起飞？ 6. 三星、金士顿SSD提价超10%。 SSD价格继续飞？ 7. T-glass玻璃纤维短缺持续恶化？日东纺等继续飞？ 8. 溴（蚀刻电路和阻燃必需）暴涨到12000美元/吨。 以色列ICL集团据称控制全球40%供应？ 不太熟这块，但值得关注？ 9. 「外延厂商联亚光电称产出仍远低于客户需求」。 呃，$IQE 等起飞？ 10. 「AI数据中心撞上互连极限，推升光模块需求」「瓶颈已不只是算力，而是算力如何被连接」。 光子股 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、中际旭创等继续飞？下一代 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、稳懋等起飞？ 一句话总结：AI巨头需求导致全面短缺，整个AI半导体供应链都在起飞。
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