$ASML · 海外大V持仓追踪

$ASML 现在是什么情况？

最近有人说了 $ASML 什么？

下面是最近 8 条提及 $ASML 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2026-05-17中性原文
  When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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• 2026-05-07看多原文
  For me, probably until start of H2 2027. I don't like long term holding equipment sellers like $ASML, $AIXA, even $TOWA etc.. Monopolies are usually exceptions since they retain valuations + keep going higher. But they mainly benefit from the start-middle of cycles, then fall off until the next cycle begins. But now's usually a good time before the GCS ramp.
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• 2026-04-30看多原文
  I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research).
 For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.
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• 2026-04-27中性原文
  So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)
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• 2026-04-23看多原文
  @northyvt I feel like $TSM and OSAT/advanced packaging partners are the main beneficiaries apart from $AMD? Maybe like $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML and others too? $INTC also have their own fabs that they bought back recently so it's happy.
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• 2026-04-19中性原文
  Nah, full steam ahead. Two nations in US/China are racing to see who can reach the singularity first in recursive self-improvement. $TSM earnings indicated massive growth + little disruption to supply chains (eg. helium). $ASML indicated record capex spending. OpenAI raised $120B+ so contagion fears are gone for another year and half. Models like Mythos keep improving at just astounding rates, and everyone from China to US are soaking up all the GPUs to train new models + catch up. Everyone is soaking up materials and little used parts in supply chains now have massive growth vectors from AI.
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• 2026-04-18中性原文
  Just some TLDRs to save you time: 1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr. 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad. 3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips. 4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr. 5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy. 6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this. 7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later. 8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs" I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).
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• 2026-03-14看多
  这消息相当令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期裁员 600,000 名员工，因为他们被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一个反乌托邦的未来。 公司最终在没有人力劳动成本的情况下，获得创纪录利润。 唯一受益的方式： 投资 AI 作为对冲。 未来几年感觉像是逃离由 AI 替代造成的永久底层阶级的主要方式。 由 AI 带来的股本回报将流向股东。 而那些靠薪水度日、没有投资股票的人之间的差距，将继续扩大。 这不是未来。 - Opus 4.6 如今已经足够好，可以取代大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 如今已经开始在 SF 等地取代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 人形机器人接下来会到来，因为它们如今已在中国广泛普及。 这一切正在发生。 伊朗的扰动只会对加速中的 AI 建设造成暂时影响。 AI 已经到达拐点，看起来不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业数据修正下调接近 1 Million，这是惊人的。 而且我们正在看到最新的 LLMs 由它们之前的模型构建，因为 AI 正在接近奇点（AI 主导的递归增长）。 投资于运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件所在领域： 来自数据中心/电力/电网板块： $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE AI 扩展所需的光子学板块： $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM 芯片所需的半导体板块： $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC 芯片的内存板块： $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung 用于 hyperscaler AI 推理的 ASICs： $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek 确保芯片正常工作的良率板块： $TER, $AEHR, Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI 以及许多其他领域，将成为对冲大规模 AI 替代的唯一、最大工具。 谁拥有算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就拥有 AI 的未来。
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