$AVGO · 海外大V持仓追踪

$AVGO 现在是什么情况？

最近有人说了 $AVGO 什么？

下面是最近 8 条提及 $AVGO 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2026-09-01中性原文
  Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes
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• 2026-08-31中性原文
  Today, $NVDA has announced a $3.5B investment into Mediatek. It appears Nvidia is "networking" itself into the broader ASIC ecosystem, from $MRVL to MediaTek. And have future ecosystems aligned with Nvidia standards. (maybe to fend off $AVGO as well) https://t.co/okdGKS51U3
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• 2026-08-31看多原文
  Yep, with $NVDA investing $3.5B into Mediatek. It does feel like Nvidia is playing kingmaker with the next generation of ASIC winners like $MRVL / Mediatek, with a second order effect of eroding $AVGO position. Playbook feels similar to what they did with Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CRWV (vs. hyperscaler cloud programs) Help create the next leaders, then make them both financially and strategically aligned with Nvidia. I do think it’s brilliant, but moves like this might push $AMD, $AVGO, and certain hyperscalers closer together. Regardless this move cements Nvidia’s strategic position in inference (where hyperscaler ASICs were a former long-term bear case).
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• 2026-08-29中性原文
  If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time." It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets. Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers. Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines. 3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing. -> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe. It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers -> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap. Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines. Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements. Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor. And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers" who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated. Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left. And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete. If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different. _ TLDR: $SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company. Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027. Not "evaluation" at that timeframe. And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup. As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments. $SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders. Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue. Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.
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• 2026-07-21中性
  情况稍微更复杂一些。基本上，$AMD SF 活动是在明天，周三/周四（7月22日、23日）。 来自 Jefferies 的客户报告，AMD 预计将围绕其可能的 scale-up CPO 路线图 + MI500 提供更多披露。 如果他们确认 CPO 路线，在主题上将是利好，因为这并不只是 $NVDA 在推动这一转型。 至于 $SIVE，如果他们是否直接进入 AMD 供应链，我们会有更清晰的判断。 因为目前可以通过 $GFS（据称参与 AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 AYAR（AMD 曾投资该公司）来映射。但还没有正式确认。 所以如果你在关注： - CPO 主题利好：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光学 UALink。 - AMD 给出使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE 用于 MI500 CPO 的细节：考虑到他们是上游激光供应商/参考激光，这对 $SIVE 将是极大利好。 目前，Jefferies 的 Blayne Curtis 预计 AMD 将与 $ALAB 在 UAL 上合作，并与 $AVGO 在 ESUN 上合作……但关键细节在这里： “我们关注的是 AMD 是否承诺采用基于 CPO 的 scale up 解决方案，以及谁供应光学引擎” 周三/周四我们会对供应链有更广泛的解读，今天判断还太早。
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• 2026-05-17看多
  川普显然做多寿司。 总统买下 Kura Sushi（$KRUS，约6亿美元市值）的可观股份这事真的很好笑。 夹在 $AVGO 到 $NVDA 的持仓之间。 如果川普真买了500万美元，总统将持有我最喜欢的美国寿司连锁近0.8%的股份。 我没有持仓……但我喜欢我们的总统扫货寿司店这个概念。
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• 2026-05-03看多
  以防你想知道为什么我如此看好 CPO。 比如 $SIVE（激光器）、Shunsin（封装）、MSSCorps（良率）、Win Semi / $TSEM（代工）。 “预计 CPO 市场将在 2026 年至 2030 年以 142% 的 CAGR 急剧增长（不含 ELS）” “预计在 2030 年之前，scale-up CPO 细分市场将超过 scale-out 应用，并成为主导市场。 未来几年你会看到几乎呈抛物线式的增长。 像 Sivers 这样的许多参与者，此前对 800g 可插拔光模块几乎没有实质性敞口，但作为激光器供应商，却是 CPO 最前沿的领导者。 这是由 $NVDA 和 $AVGO 驱动的架构所带来的下一轮光通信超级周期中，最好且最早的机会之一。
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• 2026-04-23中性
  $SIVE 在2027-2028年可能进入的超算客户名单，对照9亿美元市值看是惊人的。 市场不明白将要发生什么。 推测性供应链梳理： > $SIVE → $POET → $MRVL → 1. $AMZN（与Celestial光子互连有采购协议/认股权证） 2. $MSFT（Maia） 3. $GOOGL（近期与Marvell的开发洽谈） $SIVE 驱动POET Starlight/光学中介层，POET的CFO几天前确认在给Marvell供货。 > $SIVE → $POET → 「NDA下的其他超算供应商」 > $SIVE → $JBL（1.6T LRO）→ 1. $META（Jabil继承的英特尔硅光业务，对应Meta LRO项目） 2. $NVDA（可能OEM光收发器）→ $MSFT | AWS | 各巨头 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T光收发器的确认激光器来源。 > $SIVE → Ayar（上月融资5亿美元用于放量）→ 1. Alchip（联合CPO） 2. 英特尔 3. GUC/纬颖 → $AMZN（Alchip） → $AMD（$GFS 合作带来的CPO）可能。 $SIVE 是Ayar已知的激光器供应商，Ayar最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从官网撤下，只展示 $GFS + $SIVE，说明Sivers大概率是主力激光器供应商。 $GFS 和 $AMD 最近结盟，这让Sivers有机会成为 $AMD CPO项目的核心激光器供应商（如果他们选Ayar）。 > $SIVE → Enablence → O-Net（亚洲大型OEM）→ 亚洲巨头 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. 字节跳动（可能） 4. 腾讯（可能） 5. 阿里（可能） Sivers的激光器由稳懋这类代工厂量产……并且从近期演示材料看已在 $GFS 的CPO供应链中验证。 重点不是大家现在用认证收入建模出来的当期预测。 超额收益来自2027、2028、2029年及以后每一家东西方巨头对CPO/1.6T的需求所对应的未来收入。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不为人知的光子股之一。
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