$FN · 海外大V持仓追踪

$FN 现在是什么情况？

最近有人说了 $FN 什么？

下面是最近 8 条提及 $FN 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2026-08-12中性原文
  @Malinrec - Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.
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• 2026-05-20中性原文
  $SIVE is nominating two new board members today. It's very highly telling since the newcomers have acquisition backgrounds from: -> Head of M&A at Ericsson / Advisor at Verdane, focusing on M&A / Deutsche Bank. -> CFO from HMS / Axholmen and Celerant Consulting around M&A/strategy. The bull case with $SIVE was to start from the laser source: Then speedrun TAM expansion down the pluggable/CPO stack through IP acquisitions, and use $FN + others for final assembly to keep things capex light. If they want to capture more overall revenue during the CPO/Photonics supercycle, following the $LITE playbook. So, it's a healthy indicator they're heading down the right track nominating two M&A focused people. Only idea to float out is to capital raise with private placement or convertibles with US institutions after NASDAQ listing. Since Swedish markets are still very thin and Sivers can get better terms for larger acquisitions... after new US liquidity reprices of MC/shares on listing. (Sivers has that recent bridge round in the meantime) Larger US institutions are likely interested in entering new very material $SIVE positions as well once Sivers passes some US institutions listing mandates.
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• 2026-05-17中性原文
  When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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• 2026-04-29看多原文
  Monitoring the situation for you (testing/yields edition): $VIAV and $FORM earnings: Extremely Bullish So what does this mean? Names like $ONTO / $CAMT go brr. Throw in $TOWA (6315), since there's indication of aggressive memory production ramp. Names like Msscorps / $KEYS should go brrr. Broader upstream yields, test, validation, and inspection for both memory + optical ecosystem go heavily BRRR. And it's a leading indicator for $COHR, $FN, $LITE, and others if they're ramping up production. For $VIAV: -> $406.8M vs. $393M (beat) 42.8% Y/Y growth. -> $.27 EPS vs $0.2-$0.24 Guidance was $427m-$437m, indicating acceleration. For $FORM: -> $226M, 32% Y/Y, $.56 EPS vs. $.45 -> margins increased a TON to 49% (which indicates pricing power). -> Guidance was $.61 EPS, midpoint ~$240m revenue. "Record demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and stronger "Foundry & Logic networking applications" Basically the smaller yields/test ecosystem in general. BRRR.
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• 2026-04-09中性
  随手列30只我今天喜欢的美股和理由： 1. $INTC - 美国代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL - 未来maia ASIC和CPO等业务撑收入，业务多到数不清 3. $TSM - 半导体/AI的脊梁 4. $COHR - 垂直整合什么都做+吃光学周期 5. $RKLB - 太空是5年后和20年后的终极前沿 6. $DRAM - 三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO - 巨头们不想交英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN - 没人卷得过卫生纸次日达，机器人会持续降低运营成本 9. $ARM - AGI CPU未来十年持续放大收入 10. $TSEM - 光子相关的东西总得有代工厂 11. $IBIT - 比特币，都懂 12. $NBIS - 我认为是下一个AWS。还跟Uber做自动驾驶、有数据库公司、数据标注，像个迷你谷歌 13. $GOOGL - YouTube不会消失，Gemini很强，TPU垂直整合，用经营利润出资建设 14. $AMKR - 超级工厂2027-2028投产，受益美国制造 15. $HOOD - 短期不喜欢，长期看好：抓住了散户+银行等新产品线，产品创新很猛 16. $CRCL - 我真心看好稳定币是支付/储值的未来（取决于监管法案） 17. $META - 大家短期内不会停用Instagram和WhatsApp 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU的BOM占比不低。只要谷歌AI计划在跑，$LITE 就好 19. $LPTH - 锗和中国出口管制永远是问题，美国造的工程替代品永远重要 20. $FN - 总得有人组装光学器件 21. $JBL - 同上，还继承了英特尔硅光收购的IP，可能成为下一个旭创？ 22. $MP - 美国稀土项目极其重要，类似 $INTC 的国家安全逻辑 23. $HIMS - 听我说完：他们刚收购了一堆公司，19美元有全球DTC渠道。空头恨死这公司了，但我觉得是有前景的逆向做多 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL - 开关柜的美国替代，DC类瓶颈 26. $VPG - 人形机器人2027-2028会起来，这家做传感器 27. $MOG.A - 从机器人到SpaceX供应链到处都有它 28. $MSFT - 375美元，有一天回头看会发现是买点 29. $CVX - 战后油价可能崩，但石油公司会极其重要，尤其委内瑞拉是金矿 30. $XLU - 降息可能重启，AI需要电力/电网，从 $CEG 到 $NEE 永远重要 $AAOI 和 $AEHR 之外的一些随想。
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• 2026-03-20中性
  Serenity 硅光/CPO ETF。 各成分股年内收益： $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: +167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% 藤仓: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% 信越: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: +15.03% $FN: +12.79% 新易盛: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% 住友: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% 中际旭创: +0.33% $MRVL: +0.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% 这是回头看的数据，但你们知道我在很多赢家里待了很久（比如前6/7名里除Landmark外的 $AXTI、$LITE）。 不过如果你好奇年初等权投资整个光子趋势会怎样—— 等权收益是？ 50.033% 我预计光子超级周期将持续数年，其中很多标的会是大受益者。 尤其当CPO被用于AI规模化部署时。 光子是AI的新架构范式。
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• 2026-03-17看多
  即将到来的CPO/硅光瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、住友、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI —— 光源（CW DFB激光器） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC —— 硅光代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR —— DCO $HIMX、上诠FOCI（3363.TWO）—— 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET —— 光学中介层 $SOI、$AXTI、信越 —— 衬底 $FN、$ASX、中际旭创、新易盛 —— 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL —— 模拟/混合信号IC $LWLG —— 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、藤仓 —— 连接器与光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR —— 测试测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT —— 先进封装与混合键合 还有很多私有公司：Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……大家都在问：怎么赚钱？ 看CPO TAM的预测，就是一条直线向上，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 超额收益在于捕捉轮动： 从当前的EML瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR 类）转向CPO时代的硅光/CW DFB架构赢家。 上行空间最大的，是那些不在当前周期里、 但会在下一个周期里的。 $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR 就是完美例子。 吃着当前可插拔瓶颈的 $AAOI 也要拿住。 但超额收益是抢在机构前面布局下一个CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动是必然的。
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• 2026-02-25看空
  我是第一个从光子学 BOM/供应链角度谈到 $AXTI 的： $IQE 也非常有意思，因为它是少数西方供应商之一。 基本上，如果你看 $GOOGL TPU/超大规模云厂商 ASIC 上的光子学流程，大概是这样的（很可能如此，但未披露）： 光收发器（最高 BOM）： Lumentum/Cloud Light： ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/Sumitomo/JX -> $IQE（外延晶圆）-> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN（合同制造）-> $GOOGL TPU 商用光学供应链： ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / Sumitomo / JX -> → $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR（EML）+ $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> Innolight/Eoptolink -> $GOOGL 所以，如果你想找光子学 BOM 中更上游、具有 moonshot 类型潜力的光子学 BOM / 涨价股：$AXTI、$IQE 是你的选择。 $AXTI 之前基本面很糟糕，但最近 Northland 的融资轮巩固了它的上涨。 $IQE 现在基本面很糟糕（净债务 £23.5 million），但可能是供应链中最关键的环节之一。如果他们设法出售台湾业务，只靠他们的 inp 业务推动它大涨，我也不会意外。 有 £18m 可转换票据（基本上不算什么），然后还有 120 到 154m 股新股（约 12% 到 15%），相对于目前规模来说也算不了什么。 另一方面，其他公司 $LITE 和 Innolight 可能更成熟。 TLDR： $IQE -> 看起来对西方供应链至关重要，$130MC。净债务，如果他们出售台湾业务 -> 强劲重估，或者他们可能无论如何都会稀释你。 但如果台湾业务卖不出去，可能要预期会像 Wolfspeed 一样被稀释到归零。所以风险非常、非常大，请自行研究风险。 但 $AXTI 和 $IQE 对我个人来说可能很有意思（我确实持有 $IQE）。
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常见问题

同板块还有哪些个股在被讨论？

$SIVE · $LITE · $AXTI · $AAOI · $NVDA · $MSFT · $COHR · $MRVL · $NBIS · $IREN · $GOOGL · $META　·　查看全部个股索引 →