$FORM · 海外大V持仓追踪

$FORM 现在是什么情况？

最近有人说了 $FORM 什么？

下面是最近 8 条提及 $FORM 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2026-08-31中性原文
  $TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging: "Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere... Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN) Just some bucket ideas: Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa Optical fiber / FAU: Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo Fiber Optic / CPO Connectors: BizLink, $GLW , Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO testing: MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma (disclosure: exposure to theme above, individual names not named by TSMC) There are others I like as well, such as ShunSin, which now has explicit TSMC COUPE exposure but probably belongs under a different category like packaging/integration. eg. "Foxconn unit ShunSin confirms TSMC COUPE partnership" I don't think there's anything too new vs. H1, aside from ongoing news (eg. FAU looks like there will have a demand imbalance in 2027, from a report last week). But it's helpful to reiterate overall beneficiaries from time to time...
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• 2026-08-06中性原文
  Funniest callout of the year from $VIAV on CPO timelines: "Well, there's been a lot of industry talk [about delays], like, 'Oh, because the yield is going to be slower.' That's all nonsense. CPO and all that thing is moving forward" They stated that Yes there's always issues, but the process is being improved and things are getting better. To follow up on that, the CEO stated: - Viavi has POs for CPO-testing activity - “We’re already getting [CPO revenue] this quarter, and probably in December it will start accelerating.” On a side note, they also stated, 1.6T is "ramping very quickly", should reach parity with 800g next year, and signaled longer tail for 800g demand. TLDR: Seeing CPO test revenues hit for $VIAV to $FORM around now. Nvidia also stated switch-side CPO for scale out and scale across has entered mass production earlier. As for scale up timelines, early production should be H2 2027 for some players, with other CPO players Ayar stating 2028 is the volume inflection period. Basically, all the timelines seem to be the same as before and revenue is starting to hit testing players first.
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• 2026-07-31看多原文
  @RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.
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• 2026-07-31看空原文
  @Erick_P23 Thesis is more for CPO scale up expecting complexity making make MSSCorp a monopoly-type chokepoint over inspection yields (they were claiming 90% market share target). Although they can be used for other segments. $FORM ramped a lot earlier, so maybe will revenue would start to appear in next earnings? Regardless, Asian names sold off extremely hard on CPO timeline delay report that I found to be incorrect with my channel checks at the $AMD conference. Don't think my views have changed, it's moreso waiting for 2027. Names with more confirmed scale-out switch volumes like Shunsin + laser names like $AAOI / $SIVE ramp a lot earlier. It's just timelines in my view and when markets want to price that in.
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• 2026-07-30看空原文
  Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.
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• 2026-03-20中性
  Serenity 硅光/CPO ETF。 各成分股年内收益： $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: +167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% 藤仓: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% 信越: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: +15.03% $FN: +12.79% 新易盛: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% 住友: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% 中际旭创: +0.33% $MRVL: +0.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% 这是回头看的数据，但你们知道我在很多赢家里待了很久（比如前6/7名里除Landmark外的 $AXTI、$LITE）。 不过如果你好奇年初等权投资整个光子趋势会怎样—— 等权收益是？ 50.033% 我预计光子超级周期将持续数年，其中很多标的会是大受益者。 尤其当CPO被用于AI规模化部署时。 光子是AI的新架构范式。
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• 2026-03-17看多
  即将到来的CPO/硅光瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、住友、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI —— 光源（CW DFB激光器） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC —— 硅光代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR —— DCO $HIMX、上诠FOCI（3363.TWO）—— 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET —— 光学中介层 $SOI、$AXTI、信越 —— 衬底 $FN、$ASX、中际旭创、新易盛 —— 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL —— 模拟/混合信号IC $LWLG —— 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、藤仓 —— 连接器与光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR —— 测试测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT —— 先进封装与混合键合 还有很多私有公司：Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……大家都在问：怎么赚钱？ 看CPO TAM的预测，就是一条直线向上，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 超额收益在于捕捉轮动： 从当前的EML瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR 类）转向CPO时代的硅光/CW DFB架构赢家。 上行空间最大的，是那些不在当前周期里、 但会在下一个周期里的。 $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR 就是完美例子。 吃着当前可插拔瓶颈的 $AAOI 也要拿住。 但超额收益是抢在机构前面布局下一个CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动是必然的。
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• 2026-02-24中性
  年内至今：412.72% 很大一部分就是选对板块、每周从简街的算法身上薅羊毛，再加一点运气。 瓶颈多头方面，这些是我目前的最爱： 1. 内存——三星、SK海力士、$SNDK、$MU、$SIMO 2. 光子——$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI（可能还有Yamamura，但程度不同） 3. 电力/电网——$XLU 4. 先进封装资本开支——$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 除了 $KLIC 以外这些我基本都聊过？ 多数都在短期内涨了50-100%+，这又反过来放大了交易的整体收益。 今年学到的最好一课：钱流去哪、瓶颈在哪，就转到哪。而不是在网络安全这种板块里做逆向翻盘。 我的想法全部免费发布，希望大家都能学到点东西！
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