$SMTC · 海外大V持仓追踪

$SMTC 现在是什么情况？

最近有人说了 $SMTC 什么？

下面是最近 8 条提及 $SMTC 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2026-08-26看多原文
  All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.
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• 2026-08-26中性原文
  I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity gone) - $COHR (capacity gone) - Landmark (capacity committed) - $AAOI (capacity for transceivers) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia? So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players). Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers). Let’s see how they execute.
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• 2026-08-25中性原文
  Lost interest in $SMTC and every other earnings report today after finding a memory name way too interesting not to research...
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• 2026-08-16看多原文
  @KhalidIshaq85 As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.
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• 2026-08-12看空原文
  So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now. From optical earnings: 1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers. - Had ability to price up ASP for lasers. - Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay rumors as noise. Lumentum confirmed timelines (that CPO players like Sivers sold off of misleading reports from), high margins, and extreme demand for qualified CW lasers. 2. $AAOI: doesn’t have enough CW laser capacity because of too much optical transceiver demand. - Not meaningfully participating in first-gen CPO deployments, with $MTSI not looking like they're in it either but focusing on NPO. Haven't seen much with $SMTC after their HieFo acqusition. - Called lasers as the bottleneck within a 20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers. - Says customers approaching them every week asking them for supply + to move faster. AOI confirmed demand imbalances + bottlenecks for lasers. And we got an even smaller pool for first-gen CPO players. 3. Both $AAOI and $LITE claimed Chinese players were years behind for CPO lasers and far behind stated claims in qualified capacity. - $AAOI said 2-3 years+ behind with CPO lasers. - $LITE said they haven't seen anything like Chinese claims in terms of outputs (and no recourse if it's false). Reaffirms moat for CPO related lasers, and no flooding from some shortseller claims on the optical sector. 4. $MTSI said that many customers are approaching them with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers. Again, puts Sivers in the that bottleneck, giving them likely more customer demand . Among $COHR ($72.54B), $LITE ($66.57B), $AVGO ($2.13T): It's very special you get one of the public 4 Western CPO leaders at a ~$1.5B MC with $SIVE. Feels like my thesis with both: - The CW bottleneck that I predicted - CW laser chokepoint (where there's only a few CPO players, at least for gen-1) Got validated from earnings, now it's just waiting for the inflection points of next optical architecture shifts.
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• 2026-04-09中性
  随手列30只我今天喜欢的美股和理由： 1. $INTC - 美国代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL - 未来maia ASIC和CPO等业务撑收入，业务多到数不清 3. $TSM - 半导体/AI的脊梁 4. $COHR - 垂直整合什么都做+吃光学周期 5. $RKLB - 太空是5年后和20年后的终极前沿 6. $DRAM - 三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO - 巨头们不想交英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN - 没人卷得过卫生纸次日达，机器人会持续降低运营成本 9. $ARM - AGI CPU未来十年持续放大收入 10. $TSEM - 光子相关的东西总得有代工厂 11. $IBIT - 比特币，都懂 12. $NBIS - 我认为是下一个AWS。还跟Uber做自动驾驶、有数据库公司、数据标注，像个迷你谷歌 13. $GOOGL - YouTube不会消失，Gemini很强，TPU垂直整合，用经营利润出资建设 14. $AMKR - 超级工厂2027-2028投产，受益美国制造 15. $HOOD - 短期不喜欢，长期看好：抓住了散户+银行等新产品线，产品创新很猛 16. $CRCL - 我真心看好稳定币是支付/储值的未来（取决于监管法案） 17. $META - 大家短期内不会停用Instagram和WhatsApp 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU的BOM占比不低。只要谷歌AI计划在跑，$LITE 就好 19. $LPTH - 锗和中国出口管制永远是问题，美国造的工程替代品永远重要 20. $FN - 总得有人组装光学器件 21. $JBL - 同上，还继承了英特尔硅光收购的IP，可能成为下一个旭创？ 22. $MP - 美国稀土项目极其重要，类似 $INTC 的国家安全逻辑 23. $HIMS - 听我说完：他们刚收购了一堆公司，19美元有全球DTC渠道。空头恨死这公司了，但我觉得是有前景的逆向做多 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL - 开关柜的美国替代，DC类瓶颈 26. $VPG - 人形机器人2027-2028会起来，这家做传感器 27. $MOG.A - 从机器人到SpaceX供应链到处都有它 28. $MSFT - 375美元，有一天回头看会发现是买点 29. $CVX - 战后油价可能崩，但石油公司会极其重要，尤其委内瑞拉是金矿 30. $XLU - 降息可能重启，AI需要电力/电网，从 $CEG 到 $NEE 永远重要 $AAOI 和 $AEHR 之外的一些随想。
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• 2026-03-20中性
  Serenity 硅光/CPO ETF。 各成分股年内收益： $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: +167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% 藤仓: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% 信越: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: +15.03% $FN: +12.79% 新易盛: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% 住友: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% 中际旭创: +0.33% $MRVL: +0.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% 这是回头看的数据，但你们知道我在很多赢家里待了很久（比如前6/7名里除Landmark外的 $AXTI、$LITE）。 不过如果你好奇年初等权投资整个光子趋势会怎样—— 等权收益是？ 50.033% 我预计光子超级周期将持续数年，其中很多标的会是大受益者。 尤其当CPO被用于AI规模化部署时。 光子是AI的新架构范式。
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• 2026-03-17看多
  即将到来的CPO/硅光瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、住友、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI —— 光源（CW DFB激光器） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC —— 硅光代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR —— DCO $HIMX、上诠FOCI（3363.TWO）—— 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET —— 光学中介层 $SOI、$AXTI、信越 —— 衬底 $FN、$ASX、中际旭创、新易盛 —— 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL —— 模拟/混合信号IC $LWLG —— 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、藤仓 —— 连接器与光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR —— 测试测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT —— 先进封装与混合键合 还有很多私有公司：Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……大家都在问：怎么赚钱？ 看CPO TAM的预测，就是一条直线向上，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 超额收益在于捕捉轮动： 从当前的EML瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR 类）转向CPO时代的硅光/CW DFB架构赢家。 上行空间最大的，是那些不在当前周期里、 但会在下一个周期里的。 $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR 就是完美例子。 吃着当前可插拔瓶颈的 $AAOI 也要拿住。 但超额收益是抢在机构前面布局下一个CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动是必然的。
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